Salisbury, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

803
FXUS61 KAKQ 180539
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1239 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures moderate through Saturday. Dry weather prevails
through tonight with rain chances increasing on Saturday.
Another low pressure system will bring a chance for rain and
snow to the area on Sunday. Much colder weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 930 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds overnight. Not quite as cold with lows 25 to
  30, coolest on the lower eastern shore.

Latest analysis reveals ~1024mb sfc high pressure centered along
the coast of the lower mid-Atlantic into the coastal Carolinas.
Aloft, low-amplitude upper ridging is cresting over the eastern
seaboard this evening, as a weakening shortwave crosses the
central and southern plains, headed toward the mid-south
overnight. Some thin mid and upper- level cloud cover will begin
to increase from west to east ahead of the southern stream
shortwave approaching the area from the W-SW. Light southerly
flow combined with increasing cloud cover will limit potential
for radiational cooling. Overnight low temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer than the past few nights with lows in the 20s
to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered rain showers move through the area Saturday, with
  milder temperatures as well.

- A light snow accumulation still looks plausible for at least
  far northern portions of the area Sunday. Winter Weather
  Advisories could eventually be needed.

The shortwave and associated surface low will track generally
northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley into the northeast.
This will bring a swath of showers through the the area starting
mid to late Saturday morning, but overall rainfall amount will
remain relatively low with this round, owing to the dry
antecedent conditions. These showers will decrease in coverage
by the afternoon.

Another disturbance embedded in the southern stream will
develop into a surface low off of the Carolina Coast Saturday
afternoon. As this low strengthens as it moves offshore, another
round of showers is expected to develop, mainly across the
southeastern VA and E NC counties. Rain totals may be a smidge
higher than the earlier rainfall, but due to the fast- moving
nature of the low, rainfall accumulations will remain limited to
0.25" or less in those counties. Rainfall will diminish by
Saturday evening ahead of an incoming strong cold front.

The Canadian low will drag a cold front across the area Saturday
night. A secondary low is forecast to develop off the VA/MD coast
that will bring enough moisture in conjunction with the chilling
temperatures to produce measurable snowfall mainly in the northern
counties. The event will start as a rain/snow mix as temperature
gradually drop through the day from the northwest to southeast
before turning into mostly snow across the area by the evening.
In terms of snowfall amounts, the best chance to see > 1" of
accumulation will be northwest of Richmond. The remainder of the
counties (not including our far southeastern VA and
northeastern NC counties who are not forecast to see any
accumulation) are expecting < 1" of accumulation.

Temperatures will quickly plummet as a strong high builds in
Sunday night. The west to central counties will likely see
temperatures drop between 15 to 20 degrees, while the eastern
counties, including the Eastern Shore will experience
temperatures between 20-25 degrees. As the cold air advects in,
winds will play a part in how cold it actually feels. There is a
chance that Cold Weather Advisories may be needed for Sunday
night, but it will likely be marginal for most counties. During
the day on Monday, with the help of the higher winds, the
apparent temperature will struggle to reach 20F across a
majority of the local area. Monday night will bring winds
chills in the single digits to almost the entire local area.
Confidence is high with the extended period of very cold
temperatures, so plan accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very cold temperatures expected through most of next week.
  Lows will drop to near zero for portions of the area.

- Continue to watch the snow potential Tuesday and Wednesday.

An Arctic high pressure will continue to drop out of Canada
bringing dangerous cold temperatures across the area. In the
upper levels an anomalous upper-level troughing settles over
most of the continental United States. High temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday are expected to remain below freezing with highs
both these days being in the lower to middle 20s. Depending on
the system Sunday the northern portions of the CWA could
struggle to reach out of the teens. Nighttime lows Tuesday and
Wednesday are expected to be in the single digits inland and
lower teens across the coast. Will note, depending on the system
Sunday and a new freshly snowpack is created across the north
there is the possibility that the northern CWA could potentially
see temperatures drop below zero. Winds during the day will be
calm between 5-10 kt. This will still allow wind chill values to
drop into the lower to middle teens across the south and single
digits across the north. Winds are expected to drop below 5 kt
at night but even with a light wind, wind chill values are
expected to fall to single digits across the south and below
zero across the north. Cold Weather Advisories will almost
certainly be needed for the entire area and there is a non-zero
chance that some areas could require Extreme Cold Warnings. Note
that there is very high confidence in these cold temps and
preparations should be initiated for those vulnerable to the
cold. Temps should moderate into the 30s by Thursday and 40s by
Friday.


The latest 17/12z ensemble guidance has come in a little better
agreement on the potential system next Tuesday into Wednesday. The
ensembles have shown a slightly weaker Canadian high pressure moving
down. With this weaker high pressure it could potentially allow for
better the trough to amplify allowing the potential system to track
along the coast bringing the chance of wintry precipitation across
the area. Pops were nudged up a bit across the CWA as both the EURO
and GEFS ensembles have came into better agreement with the 30-40%
of a tenth of an inch of QPF. Pops now range between 30-40% across
the CWA. Will note, there is still uncertainty with this potential
system and many changes will be made. Trends will continue to be
monitored and confidence will continue to increase as the days
approach. Users are encouraged to keep up with the forecast as more
details become apparent this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Saturday...

Prevailing VFR is expected at most terminals through the 06z
period. Winds will generally be 5-10 kt from S through the day
into early tonight. In terms of cloud cover,
increasing/thickening clouds are expected over the next few
hours, with BKN-OVC skies by sunrise. Weak low pressure still
looks to pass through the region on Saturday, bringing a chance
for light rain showers. However, coverage looks spotty at best
and am expecting little to no impact at any of the local
terminals. The chances of MVFR flight restrictions have lowered
and have removed mention of this from the TAFs. Will maintain a
PROB30 group at ECG for brief moderate showers, but this may
even be generous. Skies begins to clear from W to E later this
afternoon and evening before clouds increase again after 00-03z
Sunday.

Outlook: Another low pressure system is expected to deepen
across the Carolinas Saturday night, tracking ENE on Sunday.
Flight restrictions are more likely with this system,
potentially in the form of low CIGs/VSBYs before 12z Sunday,
and continuing with rain changing to snow during the day Sunday.
Snow probabilities will be highest NW of the main terminals
through at least midday Sunday, but will transition to the SE
late Sunday aftn into Sunday evening, with snow becoming more
likely at RIC/SBY, and possible at the SE VA/NE NC terminals
before ending Sunday evening. VFR, but with blustery NW winds
Sunday night through Monday. Remaining dry for most of Tuesday,
but a chance for snow returns late Tuesday through Wednesday (it
should be noted that confidence in this timeframe remains low
given a lot of uncertainty).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Quiet marine conditions expected to continue through early Sunday.

- A front crosses the waters Sunday morning with strong cold
  advection and increasing winds expected from late Sunday
  afternoon through Monday.

1022mb high pressure is centered over the OBX with strong low
pressure north of Lake Superior and a cold front extending to the
SW. Winds locally are from the N and NW 5-10 kt with waves in the
bay around 1 ft with seas 2-4 ft.

Surface high pressure moves offshore this evening and tonight which
will allow winds to become SSE 5-10 kt then S 10-15 kt for a few
hours late tonight. Sub-SCA conditions persist tomorrow into Sunday
morning. A strong cold front drops south by early Sunday afternoon
with winds becoming NW and increasing to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30
kt. Local wind probs show low chances for gale conditions across
most of the area with this surge but the northern Ches Bay and
especially the northern coastal waters could see a period of low-end
gales as pressures rise abruptly in the wake of the front. Winds
remain elevated through the first half of Monday before falling off
by mid to late afternoon. Seas build to 4-6ft Sunday night into
Monday with 3-4ft waves in the bay. Conditions continue to improve
late Monday into Tuesday. Another system potentially lifts along the
coast late Tuesday into Wednesday with strong high pressure building
into the region as the low departs. Freezing spray will be possible
as winds increase late Sunday into Monday and again with the mid
week system given cooling sea surface temps and anomalously cold air
moving into the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR